History Lessons?

We’ve often said in this blog that ‘change is the new normal‘, so we thought this brief list might be of interest:

  • A volatile financial and economic crisis.
  • The ‘corporatization’ of national politics.
  • An increasingly vocal ‘disenfranchised 99%’.
  • Increasingly ineffective political leadership – particularly in Europe.
  • Growing nationalistic rhetoric.
  • Rampant insider trading and overt market manipulation.
  • Sudden bank runs driven by a collective loss of confidence in the banking sector.
  • Demands for cash bailouts from China after ‘friendly’ economic partners fail to respond effectively.
  • The manipulation of border controls leading to mass migration.

Although it might look like a precis of last night’s news, this is the backdrop to James Clavell’s Noble House – published 30 years ago, in 1981 – A fictional novel closely based on life, business and politics in 1963 Hong Kong.  The close parallels with current events suggest that, as ever, there is much to be learned from the events of recent history.

However, if we were to add to this list the latest news regarding the US re-militarization of the Pacific, growing pressure on the Syrian government from the Arab League and the ‘systemic crisis in of the Eurozone‘, it appears that not only is ‘change’ perpetual but that the rate of change is accelerating.

Finally, if the underlying global situation can change so dramatically, so continuously, is it any surprise that ‘change leadership’ and ‘change management capability’ are considered to be the essential, differentiating, skills of the modern leader in business?

Pigs Might Fly

On September 26th the “Pink Floyd Pig” once again flew above the Battersea power station in London – marking the release of the band’s remastered albums and previously unreleased music.  It is thirty-five years since the iconic pig first rose above the power station, creating the striking image captured on Pink Floyd’s 1976 album ‘Animals’ and generating media interest around the globe.  This time, the band (or should that be ‘brand’?) decided to recreate history and re-launch the famous pig.

Despite the best laid plans, unfortunately the original pig had to be replaced as, according to a spokeswoman for the band, “Two weeks prior to the event, the original neoprene glued pig was officially declared not airworthy and a brand new high-frequency welded PVC replica Pink Floyd Pig has been made for the occasion.”

The event, titled ‘Why Pink Floyd?’ showcased an array of new goodies from the band, including a brand-new “Best Of” album, restored live concert screen films and previously unreleased material.  None of the remaining band members attended the event.

The phrase “pigs might fly” is a figure of speech so hyperbolic that it describes an impossibility. The implication is that the circumstances in question will never occur and the phrase is often used to scoff at over-ambition.

This might be the case with Rick Parry, the US presidential hopeful.  It’s too soon to say that Rick Perry’s campaign is over, but things look bad for him.  He still leads the Republican field in national polls, but three terrible debate performances have weakened him. The latest New Hampshire poll puts him in fourth place in what is a crucial state.  His positions on immigration and compulsory vaccinations have tipped off conservatives that he isn’t as Right-wing as they thought and his description of Social Security as a Ponzi scheme has alienated centrists.  Mitt Romney has cynically but brilliantly exploited Perry’s radical rhetoric to suggest that he can’t beat Obama.  Romney is turning into a 2012 version of Richard Nixon – slippery and ruthless, yet well attuned to the public mood.

So, perhaps someone who hasn’t so far declared is suddenly worth a second look?  For months now political commentators have been saying that Sarah Palin (remember her?) is damaged goods.  Her performances in the last election and subsequent appearances on a reality show have deservedly left her open to ridicule in certain quarters.  But is it possible that Mrs. Palin has actually been playing a brilliant long game… letting the other candidates beat each other up before entering the fray?

Palin is low on personnel and campaign funding but the Tea Party knows who she is and will still back her if there is no viable conservative alternative.  Apparently she is just five points behind President Obama in a hypothetical match-up – a better position than Rick Perry!  Political commentators must surely be rubbing their hands in anticipation.

Barking Mad

The reality though is that at this point, we are no closer to knowing who will take on President Obama in 2012.  As for Sarah Palin?  Perhaps pigs might just take to the air…

A question of balance…

It was interesting to see the “National Day of the Pedestrian” held last weekend in Bolivia where all motorized forms of transport – including public transport – were banned from cities all across the country on Sunday.  Two million cars were taken off the streets in nine cities, according to officials cited by Reuters news agency.

President Evo Morales’ says he wants to raise awareness about the environment but it comes at a time when his government is facing criticism over plans to build a highway through the Amazon rainforest.

The recent protests against the highway have been an embarrassment for Mr. Morales, who is a prominent advocate of indigenous rights and the protection of the planet.  The government says the route will promote much needed development, and says it will take measures to protect the rainforest.

Activists say the construction of a road through the Isiboro-Secure National Park, a rainforest reserve, will encourage illegal settlement and deforestation.  The Bolivian Vice-President, Alvaro Garcia Linera, said the government wanted to achieve a balance between development and conservation – no easy feat of course.

Achieving balance is one of the most prominent personal and business dilemmas.  Clearly, it is a broad goal and  ‘achieving balance’ can relate to many things – from our efforts to balance resource requirements with costs, to finding balance between our professional and home lives.

If we are honest, we live in an unbalanced world.  At one level, our personal lives are getting more unbalanced – there is ‘a lot to do but not enough time to get it all done’. At another level, the ongoing failings of  governments to find balance in today’s advanced economies have caused global economic illness, dissatisfaction and political clashes.

Being in a state of imbalance causes us to feel under pressure – even overwhelmed.  This is an untenable state and we need to do something about it.  Unfortunately, though, one of the paradoxes of ‘time’ is that the busier we are, the more we need to take time to step back and examine how we are using our time.  Yet, few of us are able to do this and we get caught in what Stephen Covey calls “The Urgency Addiction.”

The solution is to force yourself to stand back, take a holistic view and adopt a longer term planning process.  When you do step back from day-to-day activities and force yourself to prioritize on a weekly, monthly or annual basis,  your activities become tied into a much broader and more strategic perspective and become more balanced.

The heart of effective leadership is identifying the ‘important but not urgent’ activities.  At the same time a leader must realize that just because no one is yelling at the moment or no deadline is pressing and because these activities demand creative thinking and discipline, they must not be overlooked or given only minimum attention. These are highly leveraged activities and investing the time needed to work on them today will avoid any imbalance tomorrow.  There needs to be balance between the urgent activities and those that are important with greater long term pay-back.

This is at the core of leadership success and is the essence of a successful life.  But, like the Bolivian dilemma, it’s not easy to achieve.  Get started by making a list of the tasks that you have in front of you and identify those important but not urgent tasks.  Set aside some time today to work on those tasks – the rewards will be surprising…

You Know You’ve Boobed When…

Regular readers of Zeitgeist will know that a recurring theme within our blog is the issue of risk management.  Risk management is described as “the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives, whether positive or negative) followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities”.

As business leaders, the management of risk is a critical role for us and yet, too often, insufficient priority is given to the management of risk.  There are a number of reasons for this – not least that risk management does not provide immediately measurable results, unlike dealing with a crisis where once dealt with, we can bask in the knowledge that we have had an impact and made a difference.

A risk is something that might happen and therefore, by inference, it might not.  Why waste time then on something that might not happen?  Indeed if risks are improperly assessed and prioritized, time can be wasted in dealing with the risk of losses that are not likely to occur.  Spending too much time assessing and managing unlikely risks can divert resources that could be used more profitably.  Unlikely events do occur but if the risk is unlikely enough to occur it may be better to simply retain the risk and deal with the result if the loss does in fact occur.

Nevertheless, preparing for potential, realistic risks is good management practice and is a key leadership responsibility.

Risk management needs to be taken seriously.  Take, for example, the issue of silicon implants and paint-balling (admit it, you don’t see the connection but bear with us).  Just this week in London, England a 26 year old woman had one of her silicone gel breast implants ruptured after it was hit by a paintball shot.  It’s worth noting that these paintball projectiles travel at around 190mph (300 Kph) and generally contain gelatine or food colouring.

The young lady in question visited her doctor following the event and discovered that one of her implants had been hit and torn apart – a deflating experience no doubt…

A spokesman for UK Paintball said they were now taking precautions to make sure women with breast implants avoided injury, but said that they thought it was the first accident of its kind in the UK.

Risky games?

Paintballing

 

A statement on UK Paintball’s website now says “We respectfully ask that any ladies with surgical breast implants notify our team at the time of booking.  You will be given special information on the dangers of paintballing with enhanced boobs and asked to sign a disclaimer.  You will also be issued with extra padding to protect your implants while paintballing.”

An extra line has also been added to the company’s standard indemnity form saying, “paintballs can damage/rupture breast implants”.

Now, whilst exploding breast implants won’t necessarily be high on our risk mitigation strategy list it does serve as a good reminder that assessing risk in business is an appropriate use of time.  If you do not currently spend time identifying, assessing and mitigating risk, we suggest that you schedule some time, get your team together and brainstorm the risks that might derail you and your plans going forward.  Develop appropriate mitigation strategies and review regularly.

The woman involved in the paintball incident has not been named but you will be comforted to know that she is expected to make a full recovery…

Navigating Choppy Waters

Here at Zeitgeist we’re big fans of the ‘great outdoors’ and particularly appreciate the beautiful and rugged scenery in Canada.

One of the best things about living in Canada is the opportunity to participate in a wide array of activities in stunning surroundings. One ‘activity of choice’ for many is kayaking.  Kayaking is a wonderful sport which can be as demanding or as gentle as the participant requires and, provided that basic physical requirements are met, all that is really necessary is the ability to both paddle and keep an eye out for other boats and obstacles.

However, for some, this seemingly straightforward combination of physical and visual skills can actually be quite the challenge.  During a recent floating expedition this became particularly evident when, having completely failed to notice the waves created by a large boat just ahead of the group of paddlers, a member of the Zeitgeist team paid the inevitable consequence – much to the amusement of the rest of the group.

This (soggy) occurrence reminded us of a recent conversation with a prospective client about the importance of keeping an eye on the wider environment, no matter how challenging things are closer at hand. His company had recently been focusing all their attention on addressing a range of internal issues, following the acquisition and integration of a competitor. As a result they had been paying scant attention to the vagaries of their market.

Vancouver Kayaking

 

The (perhaps) inevitable result was the loss of one of their largest accounts to a competitor who had introduced an innovative payment cycle for those global clients who would commit to longer term contracts in return for budget certainty, while exchange rate markets remained volatile. The prospective client’s ‘growth by acquisition’ strategy remains valid but they had temporarily overlooked the importance of ‘looking out of the windows’ of their business for the waves created by events that are outside of their control.

As the US faces the very real prospect of a double-dip recession, the money markets slump once more amid US uncertainty and Eurozone debt fears and the majority of Western economies race to devalue their currencies, what can you do to stay afloat in these choppy waters? Here are our top tips:

- Regardless of whatever internal challenges are demanding attention, make it a priority to ‘look outside of the company windows’ for those unexpected waves.

- Undertake regular environmental scans and answer the following questions:

o What are the top 5 Macro (Global) and Micro (Industry) drivers that are affecting us right now?
o What were the Top 5 Macro and Micro drivers 5 and 10 years ago?
o What do you think the Top 5 will be in 5 years?  Think about trends, customer expectations, technology, geo-demographics and political/legislative changes.
o What is most likely to change (be specific!)
o What is unlikely to change / what will be stable

- ‘Stress Test’ your existing strategy: Map it against the above environmental factors and look for gaps, risks and opportunities that you have previously overlooked.

- Prioritize all activity and monitor your progress towards your goals.

- Be flexible and adjust your strategy, filling in gaps and refining it to mitigate risks and exploit new opportunities as they arise.

The future can never be certain and change is inevitable.  In order to stay afloat, businesses need to have a robust strategy planning process which delivers a strategy that is reflective of the aims and drivers of the organization and the current internal and external situation.  At the same time it must be flexible enough to adapt as the future unfolds…

Prime Time

Prime numbers are found hidden in nature. Buzzing quietly beneath the planet we inhabit is an unseen world of numbers, patterns and geometry. Mathematics is the code that makes sense of our universe.

In the forests of Tennessee this summer, part of this code will literally emerge from the ground… Every 13 years, the normal country music sounds of Nashville get drowned out for six weeks by the chorus of an insect – the mysterious Cicada. Only found in the eastern areas of North America, this Cicada’s survival depends on exploiting the strange properties of some of the most fundamental numbers in mathematics – the primes, numbers that are only divisible by themselves and one.

The Tennessee Cicada:

A new strategy Guru?

A bug in the system…entirely different!

A Bug in the system... not a Cicada!

The Cicadas appear periodically but only emerge after a prime number of years. In the case of the Nashville species that number is 13. The forests have been quiet for 12 years since the last invasion of these mathematical bugs in 1998 and the locals won’t be disturbed by them again until 2024.

This choice of a 13-year cycle doesn’t seem too arbitrary. There are another two groups across North America that also have this 13-year life cycle, appearing in different regions and different years. In addition there are another 12 groups that appear every 17 years.

Sure, you could just dismiss these numbers as random. But it’s very curious that there are no Cicadas with 12, 14, 15, 16 or 18-year life cycles…

Because 13 is indivisible it gives the Cicadas an evolutionary advantage as primes are helpful in avoiding other animals with periodic behaviour. Suppose, for example, that a predator appears every four years in the forest. Then a Cicada with an 8 or 9 year life-cycle will coincide with the predator much more often than a Cicada with a 7 year or 13 year prime life cycle. These insects are tapping into the code of mathematics for their survival.

In a bizarre leap of intuition, this got us thinking about the relationships among industry life cycles, technological change, and firms’ strategic choices – relationships that are central to the fields of strategy, economics, and organization theory. The field of Strategic Management has recently explored a range of new questions regarding innovation, technological change, organization capabilities, and leadership decision-making. This exploration has produced many insights regarding how firms develop and how competition unfolds over time.

At Zeitgeist we use the Industry Lifecycle model in helping our clients develop strategy. Here is the model in a nutshell. Industries typically start off with a period of fragmentation, as companies experiment with different approaches. With time, a scalable approach emerges as a dominant model, often because it yields greater efficiencies than available alternatives. The dominance of the model also depends on the abilities of those invested in it to disseminate the model among key customers, suppliers, and other vital constituents. As the dominant model develops, an industry goes through a shakeout as unaligned firms are forced to exit. Eventually, firms find it difficult to improve their productivity on the dominant model at high rates, volume growth hits a point of diminishing returns, and the industry enters maturity. Ultimately, as volumes drop because of saturated demand or exhausted supply, the industry moves into decline.

In practice and in theory, many strategists have shown that the specific choice of business strategy by an organization – whether to pursue a low-cost approach or to differentiate on quality, for example – should depend on the phase of the industry life cycle. And yet we still know relatively little about how the industry life cycle influences firms’ strategy development.

So perhaps, like the mysterious Cicada, understanding the competitive advantage a lifecycle insight might provide is key to organizational survival..?

Who Knew?

Yet more companies have withdrawn their advertizing support in the wake of the News of the World phone ‘hacking’ scandal.

It is alleged that the News of the World has been illicitly hacking into the voicemail messages of prominent people to find stories. The tabloid, a sister paper to The Times and The Sunday Times, admitted intercepting voicemails in April after years of rumours that the practice was widespread. It is not yet known how exactly many phones have been hacked but police are investigating and estimate the numbers to be in excess of 4,000. Those targeted are said to include celebrities, sport stars, politicians, victims of crime and even dead British soldiers’ relatives.

After a disappointingly long delay, the British government has promised a public enquiry… many commentators are pointing to the personal friendship between British Prime Minister David Cameron and the current Chief Exec of News International, Rebekah Brooks, as a possible factor in this delay. Claiming to have ‘been on holiday’ at the time of some of the worst hacking episodes, Brooks seems to be laying the blame at the feet of her one-time deputy and previous editor of The News of The World, Andy Coulson. Just to add a little further opacity to how this might be perceived, Coulson moved on to become Director of Communications for David Cameron’s Conservative Party.

The claims appear to lend credibility to claims that Rupert Murdoch, owner of News Corporation which ultimately owns the News of the World, is thought to retain his loss making newspaper businesses because of the political influence that they can collectively bring to bear.

The scandal does not end there and the British Police are also facing questions over the relationship between its officers and the papers. News International uncovered e-mails indicating tens of thousands of pounds were paid over the years to police officers.

Although there will be advertizing revenue losses, so far the main harm has been to the company’s reputation and the company’s shares dropped 3.6 percent on Wednesday to $17.47, after rising for most of the year. The episode could also threaten the biggest deal on the News Corporation’s plate as it awaits UK government approval of its complete takeover of BSkyB, the satellite television company in which it already holds a 39% stake.

So what can we learn from all this, apart from the obvious? Well, if the owners at News Corporation were not aware of the phone hacking, as they have claimed, then the issue of governance needs to be considered.

Governance is a much misunderstood discipline at the leadership level from the perspective that the scope of the term is often limited. The point being that Governance is not just about control. Ensuring that processes are efficient as well as effective allows business units to respond more quickly and also by reducing waste, errors and re-work there can be real, tangible cost savings.

Good governance allows the leader to manage with confidence in the knowledge that, if adhered to, the relevant processes provide an outcome that is predictable and consistent and provides the best opportunity for success. In dynamic, complex and resource constrained organizations, the requirement for leaders to stay ‘in control’ of their environment is critical. Appropriate governance frameworks allow the leader to efficiently manage the way business is executed.

As Mr. Murdoch is hopefully realizing, good governance is essential. As a leader, it is imperative to make sure that you have the right level of governance to enable you to be effective in your role… but don’t confuse it with micro-management though. Implement standards, good practice and be clear with your expectations and then make sure that they are being followed.

For a business to succeed in the increasingly complex, uncertain and volatile business world it is essential that core processes have critical governance frameworks to ensure that the leader can effectively remain accountable for the performance of the business unit. Adherence to processes that work will provide confidence to the leader that the team are behaving as required and to standards that have been thought through and are fit for purpose.

***** UPDATE: Rupert Murdoch announces that The News of The World is to cease publication by the weekend *****

Possibly Impossible

Quality assurance in examination papers probably doesn’t get a lot of thought in general, after all how hard can it be to set questions based on a given curriculum and then the determine the answer for each? Apparently harder than it seems… In a recent exam paper taken by students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland a question was set that was indeed impossible to answer.

As you’d expect, this caused a great deal of concern and stress for the candidates sitting the examination. As a result, although the examination body OCR has apologized unreservedly and has added that no individual will be disadvantaged by the error, almost 7,000 teenagers who took the examination are calling for the test to be re-run.

OCR released full details of the error contained in a paper entitled “Decision Mathematics 1″. The question asked candidates to verify the shortest route, for two given conditions, giving values of 32.4 + 2x km and 34.2 + x km. These values should have been 34.3 + 2x km and 36.1 + x km respectively. The error was not to have included twice the journey between A and B (0.9 km) and the journey between F and G (1.0 km) in the values given. Not being Math experts we hope that this means something to somebody…

In our business lives and leadership roles there are plenty of times when we are faced with the seemingly “impossible question” – a situation where there appears to be no obvious solution. Of course as leaders, everyone in the team is looking at us to have the answer and like the students sitting the exam paper, stress levels can quickly rise.

Unlike examination papers with erroneous, impossible questions, all business issues have a solution no matter how difficult or unpalatable the answer or solution might be. The key for the leader is coming up with the best possible solution, communicating it properly to the team and stakeholders and then implementing the solution effectively. Good information is required, coupled with experience in interpreting the information. Of course the willingness to make a decision and implement a solution is required.

One thing is for certain – just because the issue has no obvious solution and appears impossible to answer doesn’t mean that it is OK for us to throw our hands in the air, give up and fall victim to the circumstance. The good leader is happy to seek counsel and advice from others. Experience gleaned from others who have made tough decisions in the past coupled with a framework to help you do so is invaluable.

Here is a short eight step guide to help you through the process:

1. Determine the root cause of the issue – don’t treat the symptoms
2. Outline your goal and desired outcome – exactly what is it that you need to achieve?
3. Gather data – this enables you to make informed decisions
4. Brainstorm to develop alternatives – don’t simply go with your first thought, you need to develop options
5. List the pros and cons of each alternative
6. Make the decision
7. Immediately take action
8. Learn from, and reflect on the decision-making… by doing this you will increase your experience and your decision making capability

Decisions are at the heart of leadership success, and at times there are critical moments when they can be difficult, perplexing, and nerve-racking. The courage to make decisions can be elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions.

Unlike the unfortunate youngsters in the examination, the impossible question doesn’t exist in the business world. Difficult questions? Certainly, but our leadership accountability requires that we find a solution no matter how hard that might be…

Blown out of all Proportion

Steven McCormack is a lucky fellow indeed. A trucker from New Zealand, Mr McCormack is currently recovering in a local hospital after having been blown up. Literally.

To provide a bit more detail here, we don’t mean blown up by a bomb or other type of explosion… but by compressed air. Steve was going about his normal trucker business when he fell between the cab of his truck and the trailer he was pulling, severing an air hose which promptly inserted itself into one of his buttocks! Ouch…

As a result of the 100lbs per square foot of compressed air being pumped into his body he literally began to blow up like a balloon. Doctors were amazed that his skin had not burst because fat had become separated from muscle. “I felt the air rush into my body and I felt like it was going to explode from my foot.”

“I was blowing up like a football… it felt like I had the bends, like in diving. I had no choice but just to lay there, blowing up like a balloon,” he told the local newspaper, the Whakatane Beacon. He said his skin feels “like a pork roast”, hard and crackly on the outside but soft underneath.

Three colleagues managed to rescue the trucker, lifting him off the brass nozzle, laying him in the recovery position and packing his swollen neck with ice. Doctors inserted a tube into his lungs to drain a build up of fluid and cleared the wound in his buttock using what felt to him like a drill. “That was the most painful part,” Mr McCormack said. Ouch again.

Now, as we considered this rather strange tale of the expanding man, we thought about proportion and context. Something we need to consider often – the ability to keep what is happening around us in proportion and to maintain a sense of context.

As leaders we need to bring this context to situations where events are rapidly getting out of hand or are ‘being blown out of proportion’… especially if, from time to time, our team members lose this sense proportion resulting in a bunch of mountains which really should have remained as molehills. Looking at this from an employee’s perspective, which type of leader would you prefer to work for? One who loses their cool under pressure or one who is under control and is able to provide wise guidance? We will assume, the latter.

Ensuring that the issue remains in context and in proportion is essential in navigating difficult situations and keeping those around you calm and focused when pressure mounts. By keeping situations in perspective and in proportion, an equally proportioned response can be made. If the event gets out of proportion then no doubt an equally disproportionate response will materialize and with all the collateral damage that this would entail.

We’ll leave you with this update from the balloon man in New Zealand who apparently is now well and truly back in proportion. Mr McCormack confided to reporters that the air was gradually escaping his body in the way that air usually does… We are still debating what his new nickname might be…

Melon Mayhem

An intriguing story from China hit the news this week as a result of acres of watermelons exploding one by one!

Interestingly China has long approved the usage of ‘agricultural growth chemicals’ under certain quotas and experts have purported that these chemicals are the underlying cause of the mushy mess. Conversely extensive tests seem to show that this chemical is safe… and farms where no growth chemical has been used have also experienced the phenomenon of the exploding crop. It is not clear at this stage if anyone has been injured by flying melon debris…

Non-Exploding Watermelons

Volatile fruit (somehow) led us to think about volatility in business. Perhaps inevitably, we have also now discovered that there is even a ‘Volatility Institute’ – created at New York University Stern School of Business in 2009 under the direction of Nobel Laureate and ‘volatility expert’ Professor Robert Engle.

Regular readers know that our long-held premise is that modern business leaders need to be able cope with volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. In the business world, Volatility is often considered primarily in the context of financial markets but, at the macro level, volatility is actually concerned with economic and business cycles. At the micro level it is concerned with issues such as staff turnover and changing daily priorities.

From a strategic perspective, understanding volatility is critical. Organizations have been known to develop strategic plans that rely on the occurrence of a specific set of events, rather than planning for a range of potential scenarios. If the future unfolds in a different way, companies can find themselves scrambling for solutions. At the micro level parallels can be drawn – perhaps in employee turnover, the impact of a supplier change, a short-term performance focus or realignment or changes in process for example.

To respond effectively to market volatility, companies need to identify a range of anticipated futures in each area and then define responses for each of the various scenarios. Only in this way can they position themselves to take intelligent action if specific trigger events should come to pass. The same is true for the leader executing his or her role on a daily basis.

The effective leader needs to identify risk, consider future potential outcomes and plan accordingly. Risk registers are not solely for the domain of projects – any leader should have a risk register for their area of accountability and this should be reviewed at least monthly. At the review, consider if any assumptions that you made have changed, if any new factors that have come into play or if there are leading or lagging indicators which suggest a change to an anticipated future state?

Trust us. Taking time to plan and to develop options for you and your team will bear fruit but hopefully not of the exploding kind…

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